Predicting match results requires an analytical approach and the consideration of many factors. Here are the basic steps and tools to help you get started.
Data collection
Historical data. Gather data on teams’ previous matches, including results, player statistics, injuries and suspensions. Sources can include official league websites, sports news sites, and databases (e.g. WhoScored, Soccerway).
Current form. Analyse the current form of teams, taking into account recent results, goals scored and conceded, and home and away matches.
Player statistics. Pay attention to the form of key players, their physical condition, as well as the number of goals, assists and other important stats.
Data analysis
Metrics and Ratios. Use metrics such as xG (expected goals), xA (expected assists), possession ratios, number of shots, etc.
Tactical Analysis. Study the teams tactics, their style of play, weaknesses and strengths. This can be done using analytics platforms such as Opta and StatsBomb.
Influencing factors. Take into account external factors such as weather conditions, pitch conditions, team motivation (e.g. fight for survival or a place in the European Cup), as well as derbies and rivalries.
Modelling and forecasting
Statistical models. Develop or use existing statistical models to predict results. These can be regression models, machine learning models or other data analysis techniques.
Software and tools. Use software tools for data analysis and model building such as Excel, Python with the pandas and scikit-learn libraries, and specialised platforms such as R.
Monitoring and correction
Error Analysis. After making predictions, analyse their accuracy and adjust the models. Consider which factors were most significant and where errors occurred.
Adapt models. Continuously improve models by adding new data and changing parameters to improve forecast accuracy.
Practical tips
Regularity and systematicity. Analyse regularly, do not miss important events such as changes in teams or coaching staffs.
Use a variety of sources. Rely on several reliable sources for information and predictions.
Education and Training. Study materials and courses on sports analytics, statistics and modelling to deepen your knowledge and skills.
These steps will help you start predicting match results with a variety of factors and analytical tools.
Where to find real match statistics?
There are many reliable sources for finding real and up-to-date match statistics. Here are a few of the most popular and accurate resources:
- WhoScored
One of the most popular websites for football match statistics. It provides detailed information on teams, players and matches, including metrics such as possession, shots, assists and more.
- Soccerway
A website that provides extensive information on matches, tournaments, teams and players from around the world. It covers many leagues and tournaments and provides real-time statistics.
- Opta Sports
Professional sports analytics and data provider. Opta provides detailed statistics and match analyses that are often used by clubs, coaches and analysts.
- StatsBomb
A modern analytics platform offering in-depth analysis of football data and metrics. They are known for their innovative approaches to analysing football matches.
- ESPN
A well-known sports portal that provides up-to-date news, results and match statistics for various sports, including football.
- Transfermarkt
A platform known for its detailed data on player transfers, as well as match statistics and team information.
- FotMob
A mobile app and website providing detailed football match data including results, player and team statistics.
- SofaScore
A platform offering real-time statistics and match results for various sports, including football.
- Football Reference
A website providing match, player and team statistics with a focus on historical data and analytical metrics.
These resources provide extensive and accurate statistics that can be useful for analysing and predicting match results. Choose multiple sources to get the most complete and unbiased picture.